SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 0.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$682.22

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,756

Combined PnL-$85.32

Under8 traders

Total Value$721.06

Total Shares6,029

Combined PnL-$596.9

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 85.3¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$94.32	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 17.7¢	$302.66	$471.27	+$168.61	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 90.1¢	$146.37	$161.99	+$15.62	80% 5031-1239 (6270)
RN1CTR	Underavg 17¢	$87.22	$137.47	+$50.25	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 23.4¢	$877.9	$97.98	-$779.92	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 89¢	$16.85	$10.23	-$6.62	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 19.6¢	$22.27	$10.03	-$12.24	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$1.44	$3.05	+$1.61	59% 10007-6969 (16976)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 9.2¢	$13.76	$0.74	-$13.02	49% 19048-19445 (38493)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 8.4¢	$8.4	$0.5	-$7.9	47% 4534-5025 (9559)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 11.9¢	$4.32	$0.02	-$4.3	49% 12512-12895 (25407)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,387.61

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$94.32

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$302.66

Value

$471.27

PnL

+$168.61

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$146.37

Value

$161.99

PnL

+$15.62

Record

80%

5031-1239 (6270)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$87.22

Value

$137.47

PnL

+$50.25

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$877.9

Value

$97.98

PnL

-$779.92

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$16.85

Value

$10.23

PnL

-$6.62

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.27

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$12.24

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.44

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$1.61

Record

59%

10007-6969 (16976)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.76

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$13.02

Record

49%

19048-19445 (38493)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.4

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$7.9

Record

47%

4534-5025 (9559)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.32

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.3

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.