Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-10-30?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 83¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 30

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$24.3

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 82.5¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares7,935

Combined PnL+$26.37

Yes2 traders

Total Value$23.12

Total Shares98

Combined PnL-$2.07

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 78.8¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	+$7.83	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
CA Cannae	Noavg 78.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$1.21	53% 15892-14085 (29977)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 78¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$12.94	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$19.7
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.8¢	$465.41	$458.65	-$6.76
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 79¢	$694.41	$694.41	+$0	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 79¢	$676.2	$688.93	+$12.73	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
0xheavy888	Noavg 78¢	$156	$158	+$2	56% 7074-5669 (12743)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 79¢	$114.55	$116.73	+$2.18	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$15	$13.78	-$1.22	52% 13740-12542 (26282)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 82¢	$12.26	$12.61	+$0.35	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$10.19	$9.35	-$0.84	53% 2151-1907 (4058)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 77¢	$2.55	$2.62	+$0.08	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 79¢	$1.66	$1.66	+$0	67% 23292-11694 (34986)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,996.28

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$7.83

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

Cannae

Invested

$1,765.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.21

Record

53%

15892-14085 (29977)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,490.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$12.94

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

Both legs:

No$1,024.6478¢+$19.7

Yes$465.4120.8¢-$6.76

LuckyLoo

Invested

$694.41

Value

$694.41

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

SnakeBall

Invested

$676.2

Value

$688.93

PnL

+$12.73

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

0xheavy888

Invested

$156

Value

$158

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

7074-5669 (12743)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$114.55

Value

$116.73

PnL

+$2.18

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$13.78

PnL

-$1.22

Record

52%

13740-12542 (26282)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$12.26

Value

$12.61

PnL

+$0.35

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.19

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$0.84

Record

53%

2151-1907 (4058)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0

Record

67%

23292-11694 (34986)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.