SC Corinthians Paulista leading at halftime?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.8K
$542.55
61.3¢ → 100¢
+63% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 61.9¢ | $831.05 | $1.3K | +$510.81 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 51.6¢ | $106.06 | $155.03 | +$48.97 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 61.5¢ | $108.57 | $114.77 | +$6.2 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 63.6¢ | $95.37 | $95.99 | +$0.62 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $42.85 | $60.51 | +$17.66 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $23.73 | $25.89 | +$2.16 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $8.64 | $14.59 | +$5.95 | 59% 10007-6969 (16976) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $49.87 | $0.06 | -$49.81 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
Invested
$831.05
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$510.81
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$106.06
Value
$155.03
PnL
+$48.97
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Invested
$108.57
Value
$114.77
PnL
+$6.2
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
Invested
$95.37
Value
$95.99
PnL
+$0.62
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$42.85
Value
$60.51
PnL
+$17.66
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$23.73
Value
$25.89
PnL
+$2.16
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
poshposh<$100Invested
$8.64
Value
$14.59
PnL
+$5.95
Record
59%
10007-6969 (16976)
Invested
$49.87
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$49.81
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.