Mirassol FC leading at halftime?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $305 held · ended Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$305.41

Combined PnL

$15.02

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$281.02

Total Shares267

Combined PnL+$10.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$24.38

Total Shares131

Combined PnL+$4.58

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 94.1¢	$198.07	$197.96	-$0.11	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 86¢	$62.47	$72.59	+$10.12	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$14.17	$20.77	+$6.6	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$10.05	$10.47	+$0.42	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$3.52	$3.61	+$0.09	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$2.11	$0	-$2.11	38% 3268-5352 (8620)

SnakeBall

Invested

$198.07

Value

$197.96

PnL

-$0.11

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$62.47

Value

$72.59

PnL

+$10.12

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.17

Value

$20.77

PnL

+$6.6

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

$10.47

PnL

+$0.42

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.52

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.11

Value

PnL

-$2.11

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.