Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Mirassol FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $92 held · ended Oct 30

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$91.55

Combined PnL

-$5.1

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$66.67

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$3.74

Over4 traders

Total Value$24.88

Total Shares83

Combined PnL-$1.36

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 68¢	$70.41	$66.67	-$3.74	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$19.16	$20.8	+$1.64	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$1.6	$2.45	+$0.85	49% 19048-19445 (38493)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.62	+$0.47	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 31.9¢	$4.33	$0.01	-$4.32	52% 4099-3733 (7832)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$70.41

Value

$66.67

PnL

-$3.74

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.16

Value

$20.8

PnL

+$1.64

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.85

Record

49%

19048-19445 (38493)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.62

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.32

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.