SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Mirassol FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$45.31

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 100¢

+53% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,656

Combined PnL+$265.9

Over4 traders

Total Value$331.89

Total Shares1,353

Combined PnL-$220.59

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 63.9¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$345.96	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
RN1CTR	Overavg 41.9¢	$409.64	$224.41	-$185.23	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 87.9¢	$246.42	$165.9	-$80.52	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 67.6¢	$95.26	$93.06	-$2.2	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 82.2¢	$30.95	$30.71	-$0.25	59% 30405-21110 (51515)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 44.2¢	$21.51	$22.63	+$1.12	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 14.8¢	$44.27	$11.12	-$33.16	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 95¢	$9.5	$8.7	-$0.8	47% 4534-5025 (9559)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100	Overavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.3	-$0	54% 4865-4090 (8955)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 79¢	$1.61	$2	+$0.39	52% 4099-3733 (7832)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,044.95

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$345.96

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$409.64

Value

$224.41

PnL

-$185.23

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$246.42

Value

$165.9

PnL

-$80.52

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$95.26

Value

$93.06

PnL

-$2.2

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$30.95

Value

$30.71

PnL

-$0.25

Record

59%

30405-21110 (51515)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$21.51

Value

$22.63

PnL

+$1.12

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.27

Value

$11.12

PnL

-$33.16

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$9.5

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.8

Record

47%

4534-5025 (9559)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

4865-4090 (8955)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.61

Value

PnL

+$0.39

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.