Exact Score: SC Corinthians Paulista 1 - 1 Mirassol FC?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 93¢ · $336 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$336.02
-$175.16
86.8¢ → 93¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 87¢ | $307.98 | $182.31 | -$125.67 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $90.91 | $71.35 | -$19.56 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $44.57 | $26.38 | -$18.19 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $43.5 | $25.75 | -$17.75 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $15.66 | $21.18 | +$5.53 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $7.53 | $7.53 | +$0 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $1.04 | $1.52 | +$0.48 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
Invested
$307.98
Value
$182.31
PnL
-$125.67
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$90.91
Value
$71.35
PnL
-$19.56
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$44.57
Value
$26.38
PnL
-$18.19
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
Invested
$43.5
Value
$25.75
PnL
-$17.75
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$15.66
Value
$21.18
PnL
+$5.53
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$7.53
Value
$7.53
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.52
PnL
+$0.48
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.