Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 92¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 30

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$398.46

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 92¢

+26% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,761

Combined PnL+$543.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares8,092

Combined PnL-$144.69

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 71¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$72.23	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
ZaiZoiBeleCTR	Yesavg 28.6¢	$3.3K	$1.9K	+$243.11	80% 5031-1239 (6270)
oieshfn345	Noavg 74.2¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$267.93	57% 1681-1260 (2941)
RN1	Noavg 73.7¢	$815.27	$998.35	+$183.08	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 84.7¢	$210.25	$224.64	+$14.39	52% 13740-12542 (26282)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$478.93	$147.77	-$331.16	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$47.11	$52.64	+$5.53	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$66.77	$41.25	+$2.64	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$80.49	$21.21	-$59.28	52% 4099-3733 (7832)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,590.9

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$72.23

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

ZaiZoiBeleCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,255.1

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$243.11

Record

80%

5031-1239 (6270)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,366.68

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$267.93

Record

57%

1681-1260 (2941)

RN1

Invested

$815.27

Value

$998.35

PnL

+$183.08

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$210.25

Value

$224.64

PnL

+$14.39

Record

52%

13740-12542 (26282)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$478.93

Value

$147.77

PnL

-$331.16

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$47.11

Value

$52.64

PnL

+$5.53

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.77

Value

$41.25

PnL

+$2.64

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.49

Value

$21.21

PnL

-$59.28

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.