Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will EC Vitória win on 2026-10-29?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 20¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$171.6

Smart Money Entry

25.8¢ → 19.5¢

-24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares10,875

Combined PnL+$137.89

No5 traders

Total Value$758.71

Total Shares925

Combined PnL+$33.72

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 26.4¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$419.22	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.4¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$424.26
└ No leg	Noavg 79.5¢	$402.98	$408.01	+$5.04
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 27.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$2.34	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 24.2¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$140.88	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 77¢	$598.48	$625.69	+$27.2	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$71.49	$77.56	+$6.07	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$62.06	$62.9	+$0.84	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$32.72	$33.34	+$0.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.4¢	$29.34	$29.55	+$0.22
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$44.98	$44.28	-$0.7	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 80¢	$25	$25.16	+$0.16	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$39.56	$24.14	-$0.38	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$23.08	$23.3	+$0.22	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 76¢	$6.94	$7.01	+$0.07	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1	$1.42	+$0.42	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,017.96

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$419.22

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Both legs:

Yes$1,614.9826.4¢-$424.26

No$402.9879.5¢+$5.04

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,542.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$2.34

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,238

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$140.88

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$598.48

Value

$625.69

PnL

+$27.2

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$71.49

Value

$77.56

PnL

+$6.07

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$62.06

Value

$62.9

PnL

+$0.84

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

Both legs:

Invested

$44.98

Value

$44.28

PnL

-$0.7

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

foooool<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$25.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.56

Value

$24.14

PnL

-$0.38

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$23.08

Value

$23.3

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$6.94

Value

$7.01

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.3%

19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$369.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

469.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.