Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-10-29?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 42¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Yes42¢No58¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.9K

Combined PnL

-$327.87

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 41.5¢

-9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes42%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares9,634

Combined PnL+$14.64

Yes7 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares13,245

Combined PnL-$342.51

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 55¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$0	64% 296-166 (462)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$3.9K	$3.6K	-$245.91	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$4.26	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 45.3¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$79.59	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 44.9¢	$295.72	$286.69	-$9.03	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 52¢	$180.38	$190.79	+$10.41	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yesavg 47.4¢	$144.56	$143.22	-$1.34	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.4¢	$76.09	$72.27	-$3.82
└ No leg	Noavg 53.1¢	$68.47	$70.95	+$2.48
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$97.1	$97.1	+$0	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$52.7	$57.04	+$4.33	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$52.24	$50.76	-$0.1	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$24.99	$21.17	-$3.82	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.1¢	$6.13	$6.23	+$0.1	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

xwingboy

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

296-166 (462)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,866.13

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$245.91

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,635

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$4.26

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,107.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$79.59

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$295.72

Value

$286.69

PnL

-$9.03

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$180.38

Value

$190.79

PnL

+$10.41

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$144.56

Value

$143.22

PnL

-$1.34

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Both legs:

Invested

$97.1

Value

$97.1

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$52.7

Value

$57.04

PnL

+$4.33

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$52.24

Value

$50.76

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.99

Value

$21.17

PnL

-$3.82

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.13

Value

$6.23

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.