CA Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 4.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $21K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
$21.4K
$229.3
98.6¢ → 99.9¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alohaa | Underavg 99.5¢ | $19.4K | $19.4K | +$29.21 | 63% 1199-697 (1896) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 89.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$190.64 | 50% 24720-24419 (49139) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 11.7¢ | $194.86 | $349.2 | +$154.34 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
 HRTradingCTR | Overavg 0.6¢ | $6.76 | $241.6 | +$234.84 | 52% 3772-3441 (7213) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $3.95 | -$0.03 | 47% 2205-2491 (4696) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $2.05 | $3.61 | +$1.57 | 58% 41297-29942 (71239) |
Invested
$19,372.65
Value
$19.4K
PnL
+$29.21
Record
63%
1199-697 (1896)
Invested
$1,640.18
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$190.64
Record
50%
24720-24419 (49139)
RN1CTRInvested
$194.86
Value
$349.2
PnL
+$154.34
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$6.76
Value
$241.6
PnL
+$234.84
Record
52%
3772-3441 (7213)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2205-2491 (4696)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.05
Value
$3.61
PnL
+$1.57
Record
58%
41297-29942 (71239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.