CA Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 66¢ · $663 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$663.38
$8.21
67.1¢ → 65.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 68¢ | $345.95 | $373.81 | +$27.86 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 65¢ | $135.57 | $136.61 | +$1.04 | 50% 33056-32625 (65681) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 32¢ | $134.75 | $111.63 | -$23.12 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $34.23 | $37.55 | +$3.32 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 32.8¢ | $4.67 | $3.78 | -$0.89 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$345.95
Value
$373.81
PnL
+$27.86
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$135.57
Value
$136.61
PnL
+$1.04
Record
50%
33056-32625 (65681)
Invested
$134.75
Value
$111.63
PnL
-$23.12
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
Invested
$34.23
Value
$37.55
PnL
+$3.32
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.67
Value
$3.78
PnL
-$0.89
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.