CA Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 1.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29

Over80¢Under20¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$5.45

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 80¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$787.38

Total Shares1,043

Combined PnL-$44.76

Under3 traders

Total Value$300.79

Total Shares1,228

Combined PnL+$50.21

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 79.8¢	$828.5	$783.76	-$44.73	50% 24686-24362 (49048)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 20.4¢	$243.63	$293.2	+$49.57	59% 45094-31483 (76577)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$3.71	$4.13	+$0.42	49% 12393-12710 (25103)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 76¢	$3.64	$3.62	-$0.02	58% 41216-29879 (71095)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$3.24	$3.46	+$0.21	50% 33056-32625 (65681)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$828.5

Value

$783.76

PnL

-$44.73

Record

50%

24686-24362 (49048)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$243.63

Value

$293.2

PnL

+$49.57

Record

59%

45094-31483 (76577)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.71

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.42

Record

49%

12393-12710 (25103)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$3.64

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

41216-29879 (71095)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.24

Value

$3.46

PnL

+$0.21

Record

50%

33056-32625 (65681)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.