Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-10-29?

4 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (19%) · Yes at 67¢ · $133K held · ended Oct 29

Yes67¢No33¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 19%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$132.8K

Combined PnL

$-31.1K

Smart Money Entry

41¢ → 66.5¢

+62% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 21 top traders (19%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes67%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$81.6K

Total Shares243,773

Combined PnL$-18.4K

No17 traders

Total Value$44.7K

Total Shares91,502

Combined PnL$-12.7K

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcott	Yesavg 41¢	$94.3K	$75.9K	$-18.4K	50% 104-105 (209)
RN1CTR	Noavg 58.7¢	$33.0K	$21.0K	$-11.9K	54% 56057-48191 (104248)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 59.9¢	$9.0K	$10.0K	+$1.1K	47% 2453-2751 (5204)
MU muneyenjayerrr	Yesavg 41¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$67.1	58% 264-193 (457)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 56¢	$7.1K	$5.3K	$-1.8K	50% 24707-24400 (49107)
└ No leg	Noavg 56¢	$6.1K	$3.8K	$-2.3K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.6¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$539.1
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 59¢	$3.6K	$4.1K	+$493.16	50% 2485-2470 (4955)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 59.8¢	$4.8K	$2.6K	$-1.9K	58% 41280-29927 (71207)
sapupuCTR	Noavg 60¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$175	— 0-14 (14)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 59¢	$976.28	$1.0K	+$24.21	53% 15864-14040 (29904)
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 60¢	$833.3	$930.52	+$97.22	52% 4694-4411 (9105)
HRTradingCTR	Noavg 59¢	$1.4K	$816.39	-$535.91	52% 3756-3412 (7168)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 54.9¢	$733.17	$806.06	+$72.89	57% 1661-1240 (2901)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.9¢	$565.2	$643.38	+$78.19
└ No leg	Noavg 38.7¢	$167.97	$162.67	-$5.29
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 60¢	$500	$558.33	+$58.33	49% 3909-4107 (8016)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Noavg 60¢	$500	$558.33	+$58.33	51% 3913-3830 (7743)
tradecraftCTR	Noavg 58.5¢	$387.98	$443.99	+$56.02	51% 5932-5619 (11551)
poshposhCTR	Noavg 58.3¢	$540.33	$356.76	-$183.57	59% 9720-6710 (16430)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 59.9¢	$314.34	$315.74	+$1.4	58% 28266-20847 (49113)
└ No leg	Noavg 59.9¢	$240.63	$239.19	-$1.44
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39¢	$73.71	$76.55	+$2.84
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 59.5¢	$476	$284	-$172	55% 6998-5615 (12613)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 60¢	$210	$234.5	+$24.5	51% 1364-1306 (2670)
FO forrestgumper	Yesavg 63.6¢	$395.12	$195.51	+$3.75	48% 605-666 (1271)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 41.4¢	$161.22	$153.37	-$7.85	52% 13677-12494 (26171)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.4¢	$100.73	$92.39	-$8.34
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.5¢	$60.49	$60.98	+$0.49
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$31.59	$36.19	+$4.59	63% 1116-667 (1783)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$25.42	$26.43	+$1.01	49% 671-695 (1366)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	54% 6146-5213 (11359)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.97	+$0.67	58% 18515-13599 (32114)

theowalcott

Yes

Invested

$94,280.47

Value

$75.9K

PnL

$-18.4K

Record

50%

104-105 (209)

RN1CTR

Invested

$32,951.27

Value

$21.0K

PnL

$-11.9K

Record

54%

56057-48191 (104248)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$8,985

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

47%

2453-2751 (5204)

muneyenjayerrr

Yes

Invested

$5,502.14

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$67.1

Record

58%

264-193 (457)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$7,100.84

Value

$5.3K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

50%

24707-24400 (49107)

Both legs:

No$6,099.1456¢$-2.3K

Yes$1,001.742.6¢+$539.1

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$3,637.02

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$493.16

Record

50%

2485-2470 (4955)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$4,787.44

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

58%

41280-29927 (71207)

sapupuCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$175

Record

—

0-14 (14)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$976.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$24.21

Record

53%

15864-14040 (29904)

hi774cCTR

Invested

$833.3

Value

$930.52

PnL

+$97.22

Record

52%

4694-4411 (9105)

HRTradingCTR

Invested

$1,352.3

Value

$816.39

PnL

-$535.91

Record

52%

3756-3412 (7168)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$733.17

Value

$806.06

PnL

+$72.89

Record

57%

1661-1240 (2901)

Both legs:

Yes$565.254.9¢+$78.19

No$167.9738.7¢-$5.29

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$500

Value

$558.33

PnL

+$58.33

Record

49%

3909-4107 (8016)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$558.33

PnL

+$58.33

Record

51%

3913-3830 (7743)

tradecraftCTR

Invested

$387.98

Value

$443.99

PnL

+$56.02

Record

51%

5932-5619 (11551)

poshposhCTR

Invested

$540.33

Value

$356.76

PnL

-$183.57

Record

59%

9720-6710 (16430)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$314.34

Value

$315.74

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

28266-20847 (49113)

Both legs:

No$240.6359.9¢-$1.44

Yes$73.7139¢+$2.84

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$476

Value

$284

PnL

-$172

Record

55%

6998-5615 (12613)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$210

Value

$234.5

PnL

+$24.5

Record

51%

1364-1306 (2670)

forrestgumper

Yes

Invested

$395.12

Value

$195.51

PnL

+$3.75

Record

48%

605-666 (1271)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$161.22

Value

$153.37

PnL

-$7.85

Record

52%

13677-12494 (26171)

Both legs:

No$100.7341.4¢-$8.34

Yes$60.4961.5¢+$0.49

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$31.59

Value

$36.19

PnL

+$4.59

Record

63%

1116-667 (1783)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.42

Value

$26.43

PnL

+$1.01

Record

49%

671-695 (1366)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6146-5213 (11359)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.67

Record

58%

18515-13599 (32114)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 21 top traders (19%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.