Will Santos FC win on 2026-11-02?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 70¢ · $155 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$154.62
-$6.52
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $407.21 | $95.37 | -$4.28 | 58% 43210-31449 (74659) |
AC acorp<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $52.16 | $49.67 | -$2.48 | 49% 625-642 (1267) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 69.2¢ | $5.88 | $5.95 | +$0.07 | 53% 6276-5638 (11914) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $3.63 | +$0.18 | 52% 7592-6886 (14478) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$407.21
Value
$95.37
PnL
-$4.28
Record
58%
43210-31449 (74659)
Invested
$52.16
Value
$49.67
PnL
-$2.48
Record
49%
625-642 (1267)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.88
Value
$5.95
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
6276-5638 (11914)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.63
PnL
+$0.18
Record
52%
7592-6886 (14478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.