Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-11-02?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$2.1K
-$50.72
54.1¢ → 51.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$40 | 47% 2607-2902 (5509) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 54.3¢ | $622.8 | $596.33 | -$26.47 | 58% 43210-31449 (74659) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $387.26 | $404.47 | +$17.21 | 50% 7184-7240 (14424) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $29.41 | $27.81 | -$1.6 | 53% 16224-14394 (30618) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.43 | +$0.13 | 52% 7592-6886 (14478) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.35 | -$0 | 53% 6276-5638 (11914) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $1.75 | $1.77 | +$0.02 | 50% 26105-25975 (52080) |
Invested
$1,080
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$40
Record
47%
2607-2902 (5509)
VeryLucky888Invested
$622.8
Value
$596.33
PnL
-$26.47
Record
58%
43210-31449 (74659)
Invested
$387.26
Value
$404.47
PnL
+$17.21
Record
50%
7184-7240 (14424)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$27.81
PnL
-$1.6
Record
53%
16224-14394 (30618)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.43
PnL
+$0.13
Record
52%
7592-6886 (14478)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.35
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
6276-5638 (11914)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.77
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
26105-25975 (52080)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.