Red Bull Bragantino vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 5.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 84¢ · $375 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$375.28
$78.97
83.5¢ → 83.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 15.8¢ | $80.74 | $199.36 | +$118.62 | 50% 24390-24013 (48403) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 83¢ | $138.46 | $101.76 | -$36.7 | 56% 6920-5536 (12456) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $68.46 | $68.05 | -$0.41 | 59% 44657-31054 (75711) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 86.5¢ | $8.65 | $6.1 | -$2.55 | 47% 2075-2359 (4434) |
Invested
$80.74
Value
$199.36
PnL
+$118.62
Record
50%
24390-24013 (48403)
0xheavy888Invested
$138.46
Value
$101.76
PnL
-$36.7
Record
56%
6920-5536 (12456)
Invested
$68.46
Value
$68.05
PnL
-$0.41
Record
59%
44657-31054 (75711)
Invested
$8.65
Value
$6.1
PnL
-$2.55
Record
47%
2075-2359 (4434)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.