Red Bull Bragantino vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 52¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$23.4K
-$18.27
52¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Overavg 52¢ | $10.3K | $10.3K | +$0 | 51% 1648-1581 (3229) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $6.9K | $6.9K | -$71.3 | 50% 219-221 (440) |
OH OhWhenTheRedsCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$46.26 | 46% 52-60 (112) |
BE berlinskies | Overavg 52¢ | $1.7K | $883.15 | +$8.41 | 58% 5770-4229 (9999) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 51.9¢ | $944.02 | $671.52 | -$4.02 | 58% 40808-29511 (70319) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 51¢ | $102 | $103 | +$1 | 56% 6920-5536 (12456) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $64.86 | $66.24 | +$1.38 | 52% 4656-4367 (9023) |
us391Invested
$10,330.01
Value
$10.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1648-1581 (3229)
Invested
$6,855.71
Value
$6.9K
PnL
-$71.3
Record
50%
219-221 (440)
Invested
$4,440.9
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$46.26
Record
46%
52-60 (112)
Invested
$1,682.19
Value
$883.15
PnL
+$8.41
Record
58%
5770-4229 (9999)
VeryLucky888Invested
$944.02
Value
$671.52
PnL
-$4.02
Record
58%
40808-29511 (70319)
0xheavy888Invested
$102
Value
$103
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
6920-5536 (12456)
Invested
$64.86
Value
$66.24
PnL
+$1.38
Record
52%
4656-4367 (9023)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.