Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (60%) · Associação Chapecoense de Futebol at 91¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
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Neutral
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
5
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 60%
$3.7K
-$188.96
81.9¢ → 91¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAssociação Chapecoense de Futebol at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 81.7¢ | $3.1K | $3.0K | -$159.43 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Red Bull Bragantinoavg 18.1¢ | $433.59 | $408.26 | -$25.33 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
FO foooool | Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 83.3¢ | $221.53 | $221.08 | -$0.45 | 50% 10569-10423 (20992) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 88.5¢ | $76 | $73.46 | -$2.54 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Red Bull Bragantinoavg 18.8¢ | $12.42 | $11.22 | -$1.2 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
Invested
$3,115.9
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$159.43
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Invested
$433.59
Value
$408.26
PnL
-$25.33
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$221.53
Value
$221.08
PnL
-$0.45
Record
50%
10569-10423 (20992)
Invested
$76
Value
$73.46
PnL
-$2.54
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.42
Value
$11.22
PnL
-$1.2
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.