Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Associação Chapecoense de Futebol (75%) · Associação Chapecoense de Futebol at 67¢ · $340 held · ended Oct 28
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Neutral
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
4
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 75%
$339.57
-$0.77
65.2¢ → 66.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAssociação Chapecoense de Futebol at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 65¢ | $130 | $131 | +$1 | 56% 6920-5536 (12456) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Red Bull Bragantinoavg 34.4¢ | $125.6 | $122.26 | -$3.35 | 59% 44657-31054 (75711) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 65.4¢ | $74.69 | $74.76 | +$0.08 | 50% 24390-24013 (48403) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Associação Chapecoense de Futebolavg 67¢ | $10.05 | $11.55 | +$1.5 | 47% 2075-2359 (4434) |
0xheavy888Invested
$130
Value
$131
PnL
+$1
Record
56%
6920-5536 (12456)
Invested
$125.6
Value
$122.26
PnL
-$3.35
Record
59%
44657-31054 (75711)
Invested
$74.69
Value
$74.76
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
24390-24013 (48403)
Invested
$10.05
Value
$11.55
PnL
+$1.5
Record
47%
2075-2359 (4434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.