Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Red Bull Bragantino leading at halftime?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 0.1¢ · $237 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 100%
$236.54
-$101.9
45.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 51.5¢ | $184.32 | $178.79 | -$5.53 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $32.98 | $39.26 | +$6.28 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $14.48 | $17.24 | +$2.76 | 58% 28150-20748 (48898) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $70.64 | $0.53 | -$70.11 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $5.2 | $0.52 | -$4.68 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.1¢ | $19.28 | $0.2 | -$19.08 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Noavg 62.9¢ | $10.17 | $0.01 | -$10.17 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $1.38 | $0 | -$1.38 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
Invested
$184.32
Value
$178.79
PnL
-$5.53
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$32.98
Value
$39.26
PnL
+$6.28
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
Invested
$14.48
Value
$17.24
PnL
+$2.76
Record
58%
28150-20748 (48898)
Invested
$70.64
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$70.11
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$4.68
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
Invested
$19.28
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$19.08
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10.17
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$10.17
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.38
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.38
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.