Red Bull Bragantino vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 100¢ · $415 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 25%
$415.15
-$205.76
83.6¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Underavg 90¢ | $265.7 | $295.07 | +$29.37 | 59% 9444-6437 (15881) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 64.6¢ | $64.16 | $59.13 | -$5.03 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 8.8¢ | $136.72 | $46.32 | -$90.4 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.1¢ | $19.05 | $9.26 | -$9.78 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
SM SmallcoinsCTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $6.32 | $3.16 | -$3.16 | 53% 1158-1022 (2180) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.6¢ | $19.94 | $1.04 | -$18.9 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 8.2¢ | $108.02 | $0.66 | -$107.35 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $1 | $0.5 | -$0.5 | 67% 23132-11533 (34665) |
poshposhInvested
$265.7
Value
$295.07
PnL
+$29.37
Record
59%
9444-6437 (15881)
Invested
$64.16
Value
$59.13
PnL
-$5.03
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
Invested
$136.72
Value
$46.32
PnL
-$90.4
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.05
Value
$9.26
PnL
-$9.78
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
Invested
$6.32
Value
$3.16
PnL
-$3.16
Record
53%
1158-1022 (2180)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$1.04
PnL
-$18.9
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
RN1CTRInvested
$108.02
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$107.35
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
67%
23132-11533 (34665)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.