Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$24.63
84.1¢ → 98.5¢
+17% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 84¢ | $660.12 | $695.48 | +$35.36 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $409.1 | $366.33 | -$42.77 | 57% 1633-1212 (2845) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88¢ | $252.43 | $253.86 | +$1.43 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 16¢ | $156.68 | $112.47 | -$44.21 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 82.8¢ | $166.12 | $168.55 | +$2.43 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $136.67 | $145.78 | +$9.12 | 52% 13588-12429 (26017) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 84.4¢ | $129.51 | $106.73 | -$22.78 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 84.5¢ | $81.72 | $85.24 | +$3.52 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $65.73 | $55.54 | -$0.33 | 56% 6927-5543 (12470) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $45.52 | $45.52 | +$0 | 53% 15762-13930 (29692) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $30.66 | $27.72 | -$2.94 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.75 | $1.1 | +$0.35 | 58% 18437-13519 (31956) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $0.9 | $0.8 | -$0.1 | 54% 6067-5149 (11216) |
RN1Invested
$660.12
Value
$695.48
PnL
+$35.36
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$409.1
Value
$366.33
PnL
-$42.77
Record
57%
1633-1212 (2845)
Both legs:
Invested
$166.12
Value
$168.55
PnL
+$2.43
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Invested
$136.67
Value
$145.78
PnL
+$9.12
Record
52%
13588-12429 (26017)
Invested
$129.51
Value
$106.73
PnL
-$22.78
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$81.72
Value
$85.24
PnL
+$3.52
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$65.73
Value
$55.54
PnL
-$0.33
Record
56%
6927-5543 (12470)
Invested
$45.52
Value
$45.52
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15762-13930 (29692)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$30.66
Value
$27.72
PnL
-$2.94
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$1.1
PnL
+$0.35
Record
58%
18437-13519 (31956)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
6067-5149 (11216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
No — $695.48
oieshfn345
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoalLineGhost
No — $168.55
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
No — $145.78
UpTheBlues
No — $106.73
VeryLucky888
No — $85.24
0xheavy888
No — $55.54
Cannae
No — $45.52
HRTrading
No — $27.72
BillBenter2026
CTRYes — $1.1