Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-10-28?

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 87%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$102.55

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 99.5¢

+4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares8,616

Combined PnL-$64.69

Yes2 traders

Total Value$139.05

Total Shares4,619

Combined PnL-$37.86

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graziek99	Noavg 97.4¢	$4.9K	$4.9K	+$82.79	88% 380-52 (432)
oieshfn345	Noavg 90¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$4.03	57% 1633-1212 (2845)
RN1	Noavg 90.6¢	$883.32	$878.37	-$4.95	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.5¢	$515.58	$517.65	+$2.08	50% 32842-32398 (65240)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 92.2¢	$487.57	$494.9	+$7.32	52% 13588-12429 (26017)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 98.8¢	$496.62	$330.73	-$165.88	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
CA Cannae	Noavg 90¢	$198.74	$201.07	+$2.33	53% 15762-13930 (29692)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$79.44	$83.35	+$3.91	49% 18665-19093 (37758)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 4.1¢	$104.68	$71.43	-$33.25	50% 24432-24069 (48501)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$72.24	$67.62	-$4.62	50% 10569-10423 (20992)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$58.51	$58.42	-$0.09	53% 698-627 (1325)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 90¢	$43.79	$47.18	+$3.38	50% 12172-12403 (24575)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$32.91	$34.1	+$1.18	53% 3186-2848 (6034)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.9	$5.12	-$0.78	54% 6067-5149 (11216)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 91¢	$1.89	$1.87	-$0.02	67% 23132-11533 (34665)

graziek99

Invested

$4,924.06

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$82.79

Record

88%

380-52 (432)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,015.57

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$4.03

Record

57%

1633-1212 (2845)

RN1

Invested

$883.32

Value

$878.37

PnL

-$4.95

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

SnakeBall

Invested

$515.58

Value

$517.65

PnL

+$2.08

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$487.57

Value

$494.9

PnL

+$7.32

Record

52%

13588-12429 (26017)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$496.62

Value

$330.73

PnL

-$165.88

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

Cannae

Invested

$198.74

Value

$201.07

PnL

+$2.33

Record

53%

15762-13930 (29692)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$79.44

Value

$83.35

PnL

+$3.91

Record

49%

18665-19093 (37758)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.68

Value

$71.43

PnL

-$33.25

Record

50%

24432-24069 (48501)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.24

Value

$67.62

PnL

-$4.62

Record

50%

10569-10423 (20992)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$58.51

Value

$58.42

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

698-627 (1325)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$43.79

Value

$47.18

PnL

+$3.38

Record

50%

12172-12403 (24575)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$32.91

Value

$34.1

PnL

+$1.18

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.78

Record

54%

6067-5149 (11216)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$0.02

Record

67%

23132-11533 (34665)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 15 top traders (87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.