Red Bull Bragantino vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to Score
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 75¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$1.4K
$6.99
63.9¢ → 75¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 66¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$30.29 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 55.3¢ | $253.22 | $223.28 | -$29.94 | 50% 10569-10423 (20992) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $66 | $77.25 | +$11.25 | 59% 9444-6437 (15881) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52.9¢ | $54.13 | $49.66 | -$4.48 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 54.3¢ | $15.01 | $14.24 | -$0.77 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $5.4 | $6.09 | +$0.69 | 49% 18665-19093 (37758) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $2.09 | $2.04 | -$0.05 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
Invested
$1,025.07
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$30.29
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$253.22
Value
$223.28
PnL
-$29.94
Record
50%
10569-10423 (20992)
poshposh<$100Invested
$66
Value
$77.25
PnL
+$11.25
Record
59%
9444-6437 (15881)
Invested
$54.13
Value
$49.66
PnL
-$4.48
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
Invested
$15.01
Value
$14.24
PnL
-$0.77
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$6.09
PnL
+$0.69
Record
49%
18665-19093 (37758)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.04
PnL
-$0.05
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.