Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-10-28?

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (47%) · Yes at 98¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 28

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 98.5¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares15,093

Combined PnL+$1.3K

No9 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares10,961

Combined PnL+$817.74

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Yesavg 74.3¢	$4.8K	$5.3K	+$483.16	57% 1633-1212 (2845)
RN1	Yesavg 71.8¢	$3.7K	$4.4K	+$709.69	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
p1252CTR	Noavg 28.6¢	$3.0K	$3.9K	+$834.72	54% 102-86 (188)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 71¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$65.08	50% 24432-24069 (48501)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 72.8¢	$956.06	$961.61	+$5.54	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 79.8¢	$478.05	$433.89	-$44.16	52% 13588-12429 (26017)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 76.4¢	$360.74	$418.79	+$58.05	50% 12172-12403 (24575)
FO foooool	Yesavg 77.6¢	$227.69	$245.2	+$17.51	50% 10569-10423 (20992)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 97.2¢	$92.53	$90.79	-$1.74	50% 32842-32398 (65240)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 97.2¢	$66.67	$67.08	+$0.41
└ No leg	Noavg 2.4¢	$25.86	$23.71	-$2.16
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$23.1	$36.65	+$13.56	53% 15762-13930 (29692)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$16.11	$18.73	+$2.62	67% 23132-11533 (34665)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 27.4¢	$24.8	$12.13	-$12.66	53% 3186-2848 (6034)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 18.1¢	$31.68	$6.11	-$25.57	59% 9444-6437 (15881)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$5.88	$5.4	-$0.47	73% 1498-548 (2046)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Noavg 25.3¢	$3.64	$5.25	+$1.61	53% 2090-1852 (3942)
FO forrestgumperCTR<$100	Noavg 15.1¢	$1.5	$3.62	+$2.12	48% 594-646 (1240)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$0.7	$1.83	+$1.13	58% 18437-13519 (31956)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$0.65	$0.88	+$0.23	52% 5893-5536 (11429)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$4,816.13

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$483.16

Record

57%

1633-1212 (2845)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$3,724.68

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$709.69

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

p1252CTR

Invested

$3,018.56

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$834.72

Record

54%

102-86 (188)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,790.62

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$65.08

Record

50%

24432-24069 (48501)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$956.06

Value

$961.61

PnL

+$5.54

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$478.05

Value

$433.89

PnL

-$44.16

Record

52%

13588-12429 (26017)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$360.74

Value

$418.79

PnL

+$58.05

Record

50%

12172-12403 (24575)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$227.69

Value

$245.2

PnL

+$17.51

Record

50%

10569-10423 (20992)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.53

Value

$90.79

PnL

-$1.74

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

Both legs:

Yes$66.6797.2¢+$0.41

No$25.862.4¢-$2.16

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$23.1

Value

$36.65

PnL

+$13.56

Record

53%

15762-13930 (29692)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$16.11

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$2.62

Record

67%

23132-11533 (34665)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$24.8

Value

$12.13

PnL

-$12.66

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$31.68

Value

$6.11

PnL

-$25.57

Record

59%

9444-6437 (15881)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.47

Record

73%

1498-548 (2046)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$5.25

PnL

+$1.61

Record

53%

2090-1852 (3942)

forrestgumperCTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$3.62

PnL

+$2.12

Record

48%

594-646 (1240)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$0.7

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$1.13

Record

58%

18437-13519 (31956)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

5893-5536 (11429)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 17 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.