Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-11-04?

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 59¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 5

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

-$21.53

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 58.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,963

Combined PnL-$267.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,947

Combined PnL+$246.3

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-53 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 59.8¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$128.8	51% 23811-22567 (46378)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 59.8¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$43.18
└ No leg	Noavg 44.9¢	$994.17	$908.55	-$85.62
HI hi774cCTR	Noavg 43.9¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$185.22	50% 4941-4867 (9808)
MD mde4life1986	Yesavg 54.1¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$158.33	47% 161-178 (339)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 57¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$88.57	50% 6107-6209 (12316)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 47.4¢	$483.78	$418.79	-$64.99	58% 44906-32675 (77581)
CA CannaeCTR	Noavg 46.1¢	$113.63	$101.1	-$12.53	53% 16454-14621 (31075)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 59.2¢	$48.85	$48.26	-$0.59	51% 7458-7190 (14648)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$42.74	$38.75	-$3.31	49% 3284-3383 (6667)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$35.05	$34.5	-$0.55	50% 27494-27393 (54887)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$27.26	$27.59	+$0.33	46% 1298-1515 (2813)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$12.67	$12.98	+$0.32	49% 14201-14819 (29020)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$9.95	$8.16	-$1.79	74% 2402-842 (3244)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.05	-$0.1	52% 8547-7785 (16332)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,977.4

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$128.8

Record

51%

23811-22567 (46378)

Both legs:

Yes$1,983.2359.8¢-$43.18

No$994.1744.9¢-$85.62

hi774cCTR

Invested

$2,806.69

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$185.22

Record

50%

4941-4867 (9808)

mde4life1986

Yes

Invested

$1,942.27

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$158.33

Record

47%

161-178 (339)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$1,866.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$88.57

Record

50%

6107-6209 (12316)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$483.78

Value

$418.79

PnL

-$64.99

Record

58%

44906-32675 (77581)

CannaeCTR

Invested

$113.63

Value

$101.1

PnL

-$12.53

Record

53%

16454-14621 (31075)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.85

Value

$48.26

PnL

-$0.59

Record

51%

7458-7190 (14648)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Invested

$42.74

Value

$38.75

PnL

-$3.31

Record

49%

3284-3383 (6667)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$35.05

Value

$34.5

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

27494-27393 (54887)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$27.26

Value

$27.59

PnL

+$0.33

Record

46%

1298-1515 (2813)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$12.67

Value

$12.98

PnL

+$0.32

Record

49%

14201-14819 (29020)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$1.79

Record

74%

2402-842 (3244)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

8547-7785 (16332)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 12 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-53 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.