EC Bahia vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 78¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$3.0K
-$3.13
77.3¢ → 78¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 77.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$15.31 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 22.8¢ | $731.74 | $707.3 | -$24.44 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 77.3¢ | $617.79 | $623.79 | +$6 | 56% 6932-5550 (12482) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.