Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-10-28?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $40K held · ended Oct 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.9K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 99.2¢

+28% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$16.6K

Total Shares71,160

Combined PnL-$331.63

No10 traders

Total Value$21.7K

Total Shares24,109

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$16.9K	$16.6K	-$326.73	48% 100-109 (209)
RN1	Noavg 76.2¢	$5.2K	$6.5K	+$1.4K	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	-$1.71	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 81.1¢	$4.2K	$5.2K	+$944.66	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
LA LaarsY	Noavg 76.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$14.98	50% 3376-3318 (6694)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 22.9¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$112.17	57% 1638-1217 (2855)
└ No leg	Noavg 76¢	$762.28	$817.44	+$55.16
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.9¢	$870.31	$702.98	-$167.33
FO foooool	Noavg 76.4¢	$599.39	$559.65	-$39.73	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 76.4¢	$213.5	$214.18	+$0.68	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
HRTrading	Noavg 76.7¢	$97.23	$123.44	+$26.21	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$96.47	$85.6	+$7.59	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 91¢	$82.91	$83.58	+$0.67	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 76¢	$17.99	$17.75	-$0.24	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$7.85	$7.14	-$0.71	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$14.34	$1.75	-$12.59	50% 32883-32441 (65324)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.25	+$0.1	54% 6081-5155 (11236)

robustmstCTR

Yes

Invested

$16,885.67

Value

$16.6K

PnL

-$326.73

Record

48%

100-109 (209)

RN1

Invested

$5,190.18

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$6,460.57

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$1.71

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$4,242.4

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$944.66

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

LaarsY

Invested

$2,478.65

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$14.98

Record

50%

3376-3318 (6694)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,632.59

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$112.17

Record

57%

1638-1217 (2855)

Both legs:

No$762.2876¢+$55.16

Yes$870.3122.9¢-$167.33

foooool

Invested

$599.39

Value

$559.65

PnL

-$39.73

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$213.5

Value

$214.18

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

HRTrading

Invested

$97.23

Value

$123.44

PnL

+$26.21

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.47

Value

$85.6

PnL

+$7.59

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$82.91

Value

$83.58

PnL

+$0.67

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$17.99

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$7.85

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$0.71

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.34

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$12.59

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

6081-5155 (11236)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.