Will EC Bahia vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

69.4¢ → 94.5¢

+36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares6,205

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$273.09

Total Shares3,357

Combined PnL-$41.48

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 91.4¢	$4.1K	$3.0K	$-1.0K	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 43.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$26.58	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 72.2¢	$514.62	$609.2	+$94.58	57% 1638-1217 (2855)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.2¢	$351.99	$448.22	+$96.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.1¢	$162.63	$160.97	-$1.66
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 85.7¢	$280.67	$283.66	+$2.99	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 9¢	$232.72	$205.98	-$26.74	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$60.44	$58.61	-$1.83	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 73¢	$27.39	$26.08	-$1.31	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 81¢	$20.75	$23.57	+$2.82	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 93¢	$10.54	$10.2	-$0.34	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 68.3¢	$4.44	$6.09	+$1.64	54% 6081-5155 (11236)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.5¢	$2.75	$5.9	+$3.15	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.6¢	$18.65	$2.6	-$16.05	50% 32883-32441 (65324)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$4,085.58

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,209.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$26.58

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$514.62

Value

$609.2

PnL

+$94.58

Record

57%

1638-1217 (2855)

Both legs:

No$351.9972.2¢+$96.23

Yes$162.638.1¢-$1.66

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$280.67

Value

$283.66

PnL

+$2.99

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$232.72

Value

$205.98

PnL

-$26.74

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.44

Value

$58.61

PnL

-$1.83

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$27.39

Value

$26.08

PnL

-$1.31

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$20.75

Value

$23.57

PnL

+$2.82

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$10.54

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$6.09

PnL

+$1.64

Record

54%

6081-5155 (11236)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$3.15

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.65

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$16.05

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.