Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 14%
$4.2K
-$20.68
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816 | Yesavg 57.1¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$108.59 | 70% 338-145 (483) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Noavg 41¢ | $406.27 | $445.91 | +$39.64 | 51% 3950-3850 (7800) |
NO NotradecopyCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $339.85 | $364.12 | +$24.27 | 49% 3940-4125 (8065) |
 poshposhCTR | Noavg 42.7¢ | $311.94 | $328.64 | +$16.69 | 58% 10691-7671 (18362) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 43.4¢ | $140.71 | $145.8 | +$5.09 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $32.61 | $34.12 | +$1.9 | 62% 1191-725 (1916) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $13.2 | $12.4 | +$0.32 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816Invested
$3,000
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$108.59
Record
70%
338-145 (483)
Invested
$406.27
Value
$445.91
PnL
+$39.64
Record
51%
3950-3850 (7800)
Invested
$339.85
Value
$364.12
PnL
+$24.27
Record
49%
3940-4125 (8065)
poshposhCTRInvested
$311.94
Value
$328.64
PnL
+$16.69
Record
58%
10691-7671 (18362)
Invested
$140.71
Value
$145.8
PnL
+$5.09
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$32.61
Value
$34.12
PnL
+$1.9
Record
62%
1191-725 (1916)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$13.2
Value
$12.4
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.