Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 81¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$6.1K
$19.32
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816 | Yesavg 79.9¢ | $5.0K | $5.1K | +$69.54 | 70% 338-145 (483) |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 20¢ | $1.0K | $950 | -$50 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $63.38 | $63.38 | +$0 | 51% 3950-3850 (7800) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $6 | $5.17 | -$0.22 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$69.54
Record
70%
338-145 (483)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$950
PnL
-$50
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$63.38
Value
$63.38
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
3950-3850 (7800)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$0.22
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.