Will Bamin Real Potosí win on 2026-10-30?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 55¢ · $560 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$559.65
$28.22
62.3¢ → 54.5¢
-13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 63.9¢ | $337.69 | $350.96 | +$13.27 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 36.8¢ | $56.14 | $69.34 | +$13.2 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $49.9 | $50.45 | +$0.55 | 55% 1728-1422 (3150) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $48 | $48 | -$0 | 59% 10007-6969 (16976) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $11.64 | $12.24 | +$0.6 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 66.3¢ | $19.9 | $10.83 | -$0.13 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $8.26 | $9.52 | +$1.26 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $8.84 | $8.32 | -$0.52 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
Invested
$337.69
Value
$350.96
PnL
+$13.27
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
Invested
$56.14
Value
$69.34
PnL
+$13.2
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$50.45
PnL
+$0.55
Record
55%
1728-1422 (3150)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$48
Value
$48
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
10007-6969 (16976)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.64
Value
$12.24
PnL
+$0.6
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$19.9
Value
$10.83
PnL
-$0.13
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
RN1<$100Invested
$8.26
Value
$9.52
PnL
+$1.26
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$8.84
Value
$8.32
PnL
-$0.52
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.