Will CDT Real Oruro win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 66¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
2 arb excluded
$6.0K
$371.62
58.6¢ → 65.5¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$277.52 | 55% 1747-1441 (3188) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 57.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$107.54 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 58.7¢ | $623.98 | $638.72 | +$14.73 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.7¢ | $428.01 | $470.64 | +$42.63 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.4¢ | $195.97 | $168.08 | -$27.89 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Yesavg 41.4¢ | $376.24 | $376.43 | +$0.19 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.3¢ | $187.61 | $214.79 | +$27.17 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.4¢ | $188.63 | $161.64 | -$26.98 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $58.98 | $50.32 | -$8.66 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $21.47 | $18.17 | -$3.3 | 39% 426-672 (1098) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $7.87 | $6.38 | -$1.49 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$2,915.37
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$277.52
Record
55%
1747-1441 (3188)
Invested
$1,572.46
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$107.54
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$623.98
Value
$638.72
PnL
+$14.73
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Both legs:
Invested
$376.24
Value
$376.43
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$58.98
Value
$50.32
PnL
-$8.66
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Invested
$21.47
Value
$18.17
PnL
-$3.3
Record
39%
426-672 (1098)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.87
Value
$6.38
PnL
-$1.49
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.