Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-10-31?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 68¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$133.11

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 67.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,589

Combined PnL+$135.99

Yes1 trader

Total Value$11.93

Total Shares41

Combined PnL-$2.88

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 56¢	$748.08	$856.12	+$108.04	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
RN1	Noavg 67¢	$767.91	$773.77	+$5.85	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$281.72	$285.92	+$4.2	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.3¢	$187.04	$209.65	+$22.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36¢	$94.68	$76.27	-$18.41
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 65.6¢	$254.06	$273.19	+$19.13	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 53¢	$24.04	$29.02	+$2.72	39% 426-672 (1098)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$14.81	$11.93	-$2.88	50% 19212-19597 (38809)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 64¢	$5.23	$5.47	+$0.25	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$748.08

Value

$856.12

PnL

+$108.04

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

RN1

Invested

$767.91

Value

$773.77

PnL

+$5.85

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$281.72

Value

$285.92

PnL

+$4.2

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Both legs:

No$187.0463.3¢+$22.61

Yes$94.6836¢-$18.41

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$254.06

Value

$273.19

PnL

+$19.13

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$24.04

Value

$29.02

PnL

+$2.72

Record

39%

426-672 (1098)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.81

Value

$11.93

PnL

-$2.88

Record

50%

19212-19597 (38809)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$5.23

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.