Will CD Oriente Petrolero win on 2026-10-30?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$89.18

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 51¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,709

Combined PnL-$72.79

No7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,700

Combined PnL-$16.39

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Yesavg 51.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$71.01	55% 1728-1422 (3150)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 48.3¢	$448.52	$386.89	-$25.15	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 48.8¢	$373.25	$340.23	-$33.02	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 48¢	$268.92	$288.53	+$19.61	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 47.9¢	$95.46	$106.55	+$11.09	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$78.89	$82.92	+$4.03	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$62.72	$68.48	+$5.76	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$35.15	$34.58	-$0.56	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$17.76	$19.06	+$1.29	38% 383-624 (1007)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 50.3¢	$16.65	$15.44	-$1.22	52% 4099-3733 (7832)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Yes

Invested

$1,343.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$71.01

Record

55%

1728-1422 (3150)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$448.52

Value

$386.89

PnL

-$25.15

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$373.25

Value

$340.23

PnL

-$33.02

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$268.92

Value

$288.53

PnL

+$19.61

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$95.46

Value

$106.55

PnL

+$11.09

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$78.89

Value

$82.92

PnL

+$4.03

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$62.72

Value

$68.48

PnL

+$5.76

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.15

Value

$34.58

PnL

-$0.56

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$17.76

Value

$19.06

PnL

+$1.29

Record

38%

383-624 (1007)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.65

Value

$15.44

PnL

-$1.22

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.