Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Club Aurora win on 2026-10-30?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 8.8¢ · $132 held · ended Oct 31

Yes9¢No91¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$131.77

Combined PnL

-$14.36

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$76.96

Total Shares361

Combined PnL-$0.74

No3 traders

Total Value$54.81

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$13.62

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$43.68	$45.76	+$2.08	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$39.18	$26.5	-$12.68	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$28.46	$24.98	-$3.48	54% 56399-48569 (104968)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 94¢	$20.05	$20.27	+$0.21	38% 3323-5440 (8763)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$9.2	$8.04	-$1.16	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$3.85	$4.24	+$0.39	50% 24930-24652 (49582)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.71	$1.98	+$0.27	58% 41637-30243 (71880)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.68

Value

$45.76

PnL

+$2.08

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$39.18

Value

$26.5

PnL

-$12.68

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.46

Value

$24.98

PnL

-$3.48

Record

54%

56399-48569 (104968)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$20.05

Value

$20.27

PnL

+$0.21

Record

38%

3323-5440 (8763)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$8.04

PnL

-$1.16

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

24930-24652 (49582)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

41637-30243 (71880)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.3%

8.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$871.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

971.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.