Will Club Guabirá win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$1.3K
$95.42
82.4¢ → 84.9¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 74.9¢ | $516.79 | $637.27 | +$120.47 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 93¢ | $338.72 | $316.02 | -$22.7 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94¢ | $180.39 | $184.57 | +$4.18 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $85.8 | $70.5 | -$8.1 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $39.78 | $41.31 | +$1.53 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $18.72 | $18.33 | -$0.39 | 50% 7127-7172 (14299) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $8.6 | $9.29 | +$0.69 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $7.73 | $7.47 | -$0.26 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
Invested
$516.79
Value
$637.27
PnL
+$120.47
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$338.72
Value
$316.02
PnL
-$22.7
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$180.39
Value
$184.57
PnL
+$4.18
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$85.8
Value
$70.5
PnL
-$8.1
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$39.78
Value
$41.31
PnL
+$1.53
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$18.72
Value
$18.33
PnL
-$0.39
Record
50%
7127-7172 (14299)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$9.29
PnL
+$0.69
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.73
Value
$7.47
PnL
-$0.26
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.