Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 53¢ · $108 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$107.85
$0.1
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x5016c48436AB3eFA2Ab54b117d0C08fa1a4a1eEB-1778328420816 | Yesavg 52.9¢ | $100 | $100 | +$0 | 70% 338-145 (483) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 47.5¢ | $9.5 | $5.18 | +$0.09 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $2.66 | $2.67 | +$0.01 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.