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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

BNB Up or Down - November 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 63%

Total Value

$161.45

Combined PnL

$22.09

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$161.45

Total Shares161

Combined PnL+$93.62

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares93

Combined PnL-$71.53

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 40.6¢	$54.03	$85	+$30.97	51% 983-938 (1921)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 7.5¢	$4.46	—	-$4.46	44% 2109-2719 (4828)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 21.4¢	$14.46	$58	+$47.89	42% 1711-2331 (4042)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 20¢	$3.69	$18.45	+$14.76	49% 2292-2354 (4646)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$19.11	—	-$19.11	49% 1554-1593 (3147)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 88.1¢	$51.2	—	-$47.47	59% 3751-2555 (6306)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$0.36	—	-$0.36	47% 2109-2347 (4456)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 8¢	$0.13	—	-$0.13	48% 2164-2388 (4552)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$54.03

Value

$85

PnL

+$30.97

Record

51%

983-938 (1921)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.46

Value

—

PnL

-$4.46

Record

44%

2109-2719 (4828)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$14.46

Value

$58

PnL

+$47.89

Record

42%

1711-2331 (4042)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$3.69

Value

$18.45

PnL

+$14.76

Record

49%

2292-2354 (4646)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$19.11

Value

—

PnL

-$19.11

Record

49%

1554-1593 (3147)

Invested

$51.2

Value

—

PnL

-$47.47

Record

59%

3751-2555 (6306)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$0.36

Value

—

PnL

-$0.36

Record

47%

2109-2347 (4456)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$0.13

Value

—

PnL

-$0.13

Record

48%

2164-2388 (4552)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1a34939c...3e33ee

Slug

bnb-updown-5m-1794694200

Traders in this Market

Little-big

Up — $85

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $58

uninformedfloww

Up — $18.45

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

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