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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

BNB Up or Down - November 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 63%

Total Value

$20

Combined PnL

-$0.37

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$7.5

Up3 traders

Total Value$20

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$7.13

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 15.4¢	$3.85	—	-$3.85	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
BO bosona<$100	Upavg 77¢	$8.72	$10	+$1.28	51% 4672-4495 (9167)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$2.22	—	-$2.22	51% 976-932 (1908)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$0.24	—	-$0.24	42% 1702-2303 (4005)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$0.75	—	-$0.75	71% 1607-666 (2273)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 42¢	$2.1	$5	+$2.9	44% 2099-2693 (4792)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 41¢	$2.05	$5	+$2.95	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.44	—	-$0.44	52% 1395-1293 (2688)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

—

PnL

-$3.85

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

Invested

$8.72

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.28

Record

51%

4672-4495 (9167)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

—

PnL

-$2.22

Record

51%

976-932 (1908)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$0.24

Value

—

PnL

-$0.24

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$0.75

Value

—

PnL

-$0.75

Record

71%

1607-666 (2273)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.9

Record

44%

2099-2693 (4792)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.95

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

Invested

$0.44

Value

—

PnL

-$0.44

Record

52%

1395-1293 (2688)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0b2dadc1...0a9059

Slug

bnb-updown-5m-1794691200

Traders in this Market

ohioism

Down — $0

bosona

Up — $10

Little-big

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

BoneOhio

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $5

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $5

0x50f7

Down — $0

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