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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

BNB Up or Down - November 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 63%

Total Value

$44.83

Combined PnL

-$21.84

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$44.83

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$11.01

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$32.85

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$20.3	$26.19	+$5.89	48% 1394-1507 (2901)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 65¢	$13.57	—	-$13.57	50% 2996-2942 (5938)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$9.9	$10	+$0.1	98% 3425-72 (3497)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 68¢	$9.07	—	-$9.07	60% 3515-2365 (5880)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 34.4¢	$3.63	$8.65	+$5.02	50% 2116-2116 (4232)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 30.8¢	$3.69	—	-$3.69	42% 1520-2127 (3647)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$3.32	—	-$3.32	51% 916-874 (1790)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$3.2	—	-$3.2	47% 1973-2229 (4202)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$20.3

Value

$26.19

PnL

+$5.89

Record

48%

1394-1507 (2901)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$13.57

Value

—

PnL

-$13.57

Record

50%

2996-2942 (5938)

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.1

Record

98%

3425-72 (3497)

Invested

$9.07

Value

—

PnL

-$9.07

Record

60%

3515-2365 (5880)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$5.02

Record

50%

2116-2116 (4232)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.69

Value

—

PnL

-$3.69

Record

42%

1520-2127 (3647)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$3.32

Value

—

PnL

-$3.32

Record

51%

916-874 (1790)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

—

PnL

-$3.2

Record

47%

1973-2229 (4202)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc124c07b...db4271

Slug

bnb-updown-5m-1794661500

Traders in this Market

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $26.19

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $10

aaa221

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $8.65

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

Little-big

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

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