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DownUpUpDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
BNB Up or Down - November 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$20
Combined PnL
-$6.52
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares32
Combined PnL-$17.42
Up2 traders
Total Value$20
Total Shares20
Combined PnL+$10.9
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
E8 0xe8d6...c964CTR<$100 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $11.17 | — | -$11.17 | 53% 540-472 (1012) |
F8 0xf8af...54c6<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $6 | $10 | +$4 | 51% 1380-1304 (2684) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $3.1 | $10 | +$6.9 | 47% 1112-1258 (2370) |
1B 0x1b41...0b56CTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $2.3 | — | -$2.3 | 55% 1115-909 (2024) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 79¢ | $3.95 | — | -$3.95 | 60% 2054-1370 (3424) |
E8
0xe8d6...c964CTR<$100Invested
$11.17
Value
—
PnL
-$11.17
Record
53%
540-472 (1012)
F8
0xf8af...54c6<$100Invested
$6
Value
$10
PnL
+$4
Record
51%
1380-1304 (2684)
0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100Invested
$3.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.9
Record
47%
1112-1258 (2370)
1B
0x1b41...0b56CTR<$100Invested
$2.3
Value
—
PnL
-$2.3
Record
55%
1115-909 (2024)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$3.95
Value
—
PnL
-$3.95
Record
60%
2054-1370 (3424)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x115054fd...e9eb36
Slug
bnb-updown-5m-1794457500