Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
BNB Up or Down - October 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
6
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
$129.99
-$162.98
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MayorMamdaniCTR | Upavg 50.6¢ | $109.37 | — | -$109.37 | 55% 45398-37789 (83187) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 56.1¢ | $42.63 | — | -$42.63 | 57% 71206-54306 (125512) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $49.8 | $50 | +$0.2 | 64% 40317-23061 (63378) |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Upavg 51.1¢ | $49.47 | $42.63 | -$6.85 | 64% 23991-13230 (37221) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.1¢ | $26.8 | — | -$26.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.2¢ | $22.68 | $42.63 | +$19.95 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $31.47 | $32.11 | +$0.64 | 63% 52172-31048 (83220) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $14.35 | — | -$14.35 | 55% 18044-14641 (32685) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $2.73 | $5.25 | +$2.52 | 35% 18938-35934 (54872) |
MayorMamdaniCTRInvested
$109.37
Value
—
PnL
-$109.37
Record
55%
45398-37789 (83187)
Invested
$42.63
Value
—
PnL
-$42.63
Record
57%
71206-54306 (125512)
ohioism<$100Invested
$49.8
Value
$50
PnL
+$0.2
Record
64%
40317-23061 (63378)
Invested
$49.47
Value
$42.63
PnL
-$6.85
Record
64%
23991-13230 (37221)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$31.47
Value
$32.11
PnL
+$0.64
Record
63%
52172-31048 (83220)
Invested
$14.35
Value
—
PnL
-$14.35
Record
55%
18044-14641 (32685)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$2.52
Record
35%
18938-35934 (54872)
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