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UpandDownSyndrome<$100UpUp
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100DownDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
BNB Up or Down - October 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$15.38
Combined PnL
-$5.93
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$15.38
Total Shares15
Combined PnL+$1.57
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares23
Combined PnL-$7.5
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $6.13 | $5 | -$1.13 | 63% 51950-30621 (82571) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $7.68 | $10.38 | +$2.7 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 55% 44953-37390 (82343) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.1¢ | $2.15 | — | -$2.15 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 34% 18818-35816 (54634) |
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$6.13
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.13
Record
63%
51950-30621 (82571)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$7.68
Value
$10.38
PnL
+$2.7
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
55%
44953-37390 (82343)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
—
PnL
-$2.15
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
LI
Little-bigCTR<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
34%
18818-35816 (54634)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x12785f91...9d502d
Slug
bnb-updown-5m-1793375700