Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
BNB Up or Down - November 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
4
Down 100%
1 arb excluded
$50
-$75.9
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 35.1¢ | $35.06 | $50 | +$14.94 | 49% 3753-3853 (7606) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.6¢ | $17.51 | — | -$17.51 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.1¢ | $17.55 | $50 | +$32.45 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $51.6 | — | -$51.6 | 49% 2596-2668 (5264) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $20 | — | -$20 | 48% 2635-2900 (5535) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 44% 2501-3236 (5737) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $4.2 | — | -$4.2 | 43% 2221-2992 (5213) |
Invested
$35.06
Value
$50
PnL
+$14.94
Record
49%
3753-3853 (7606)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.6
Value
—
PnL
-$51.6
Record
49%
2596-2668 (5264)
Invested
$20
Value
—
PnL
-$20
Record
48%
2635-2900 (5535)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
44%
2501-3236 (5737)
Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$4.2
Record
43%
2221-2992 (5213)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown — $0
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRDown — $0