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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
BNB Up or Down - November 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$177.77
Combined PnL
-$3.12
Smart Money Signal
Down
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares67
Combined PnL-$6.11
Up2 traders
Total Value$19
Total Shares19
Combined PnL+$2.99
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 97.3¢ | $166.88 | $158.77 | -$8.11 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 3.1¢ | $12.42 | — | -$12.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 97.3¢ | $154.46 | $158.77 | +$4.31 | |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 6.5¢ | $3.59 | — | -$3.59 | 43% 1879-2519 (4398) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.9¢ | $9.89 | $10 | +$0.11 | 98% 4086-84 (4170) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $2.52 | — | -$2.52 | 60% 3949-2687 (6636) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $6.12 | $9 | +$2.88 | 47% 2348-2603 (4951) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100Invested
$166.88
Value
$158.77
PnL
-$8.11
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
Both legs:
Down$12.423.1¢-$12.42
Up$154.4697.3¢+$4.31
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$3.59
Value
—
PnL
-$3.59
Record
43%
1879-2519 (4398)
HO
hoodquant<$100Invested
$9.89
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.11
Record
98%
4086-84 (4170)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$2.52
Value
—
PnL
-$2.52
Record
60%
3949-2687 (6636)
0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100Invested
$6.12
Value
$9
PnL
+$2.88
Record
47%
2348-2603 (4951)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x756d11a5...c1ffba
Slug
bnb-updown-15m-1794717900