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UpDownDownUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
BNB Up or Down - November 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$102.33
Combined PnL
-$62.58
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$102.33
Total Shares102
Combined PnL-$7.86
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares63
Combined PnL-$54.71
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $103.8 | $90.33 | -$13.46 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $26.4 | — | -$26.4 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $26.25 | — | -$26.25 | 59% 3675-2516 (6191) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 53.3¢ | $6.39 | $11.99 | +$5.6 | 42% 1669-2262 (3931) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $2.06 | — | -$2.06 | 48% 2113-2329 (4442) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609Invested
$103.8
Value
$90.33
PnL
-$13.46
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$26.4
Value
—
PnL
-$26.4
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$26.25
Value
—
PnL
-$26.25
Record
59%
3675-2516 (6191)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100Invested
$6.39
Value
$11.99
PnL
+$5.6
Record
42%
1669-2262 (3931)
0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100Invested
$2.06
Value
—
PnL
-$2.06
Record
48%
2113-2329 (4442)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x166c8ee9...cc4173
Slug
bnb-updown-15m-1794683700