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UpUpDownUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
BNB Up or Down - November 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
Total Value
$21.24
Combined PnL
-$65.47
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares86
Combined PnL-$68.45
Down2 traders
Total Value$21.24
Total Shares21
Combined PnL+$2.99
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 56.4¢ | $37.65 | — | -$37.65 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $26.7 | — | -$26.7 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 91.5¢ | $9.15 | $10 | +$0.85 | 55% 1366-1134 (2500) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.2¢ | $4.11 | — | -$4.11 | 38% 657-1093 (1750) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $9.1 | $11.24 | +$2.14 | 60% 2431-1634 (4065) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$37.65
Value
—
PnL
-$37.65
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$26.7
Value
—
PnL
-$26.7
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
KA
Kathod-Shi-14<$100Invested
$9.15
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.85
Record
55%
1366-1134 (2500)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$4.11
Value
—
PnL
-$4.11
Record
38%
657-1093 (1750)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$9.1
Value
$11.24
PnL
+$2.14
Record
60%
2431-1634 (4065)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xaf3807a1...a134b8
Slug
bnb-updown-15m-1794506400