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DownUpDownDownUpUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
BNB Up or Down - November 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Down 60%
Total Value
$50.01
Combined PnL
-$42.1
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares160
Combined PnL-$41.42
Up3 traders
Total Value$50.01
Total Shares50
Combined PnL-$0.68
Down — 50%Up — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 4.9¢ | $5.27 | — | -$5.27 | 38% 657-1093 (1750) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $30.7 | $30 | -$0.7 | 50% 1859-1828 (3687) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $26.7 | — | -$26.7 | 51% 1376-1320 (2696) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 42.8¢ | $9.45 | — | -$9.45 | 60% 2431-1634 (4065) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $20 | +$0.02 | 49% 903-945 (1848) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | +$0 | 98% 2299-45 (2344) |
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$5.27
Value
—
PnL
-$5.27
Record
38%
657-1093 (1750)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100Invested
$30.7
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.7
Record
50%
1859-1828 (3687)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$26.7
Value
—
PnL
-$26.7
Record
51%
1376-1320 (2696)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
—
PnL
-$9.45
Record
60%
2431-1634 (4065)
0X
0x50f7<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
903-945 (1848)
HO
hoodquant<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0
Record
98%
2299-45 (2344)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8320060d...4b2c5c
Slug
bnb-updown-15m-1794505500